Professor Mehri Madarshahi
Former Senior Economist of the United Nations
Member of the Advisory Committee of ICCSD
The points I will raise in my presentation, are completely reverse versions of what I would have said a few months ago when the delayed decade of the implementation for UN SDGs started with a hopeful light, when we all expected a miracle out of COP 26 meeting in Glasgow and when the world look more optimistic about reversing the negative impact of climate change. The past couple of months has changed everything by deeming our hope for a more prosperous world. We urgently need to take strong action to address and adapt to climate change.
IPCC Report Gives An Early-warning
It was seven years ago in Paris, that countries including the US and China agreed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius and to avoid potentially catastrophic consequences for the planet. With temperatures now more than 1.1 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, as the latest UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (Climate Change 2022- impact, adaptation and vulnerability) found billions around the world are vulnerable to disasters of climate disruption. In its 348-page report published last Tuesday, the IPCC provided scientific proofs that climate change is about to get much worse. It is likely going to make the world sicker, hungrier, poorer, gloomier and way more dangerous in the next 18 years with an "unavoidable" increase in risks. The report begins by this gloomy introduction: "Some losses are already irreversible, and ecosystems has reached to the limits of its ability to adapt to the changing climate."
More people are going to die each year from heat waves, diseases, extreme weather, air pollution and starvation because of global warming. Just how many people die depends on how much heat-trapping gas from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas gets spewed into the air and how the world adapts to an ever-hotter temperature. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in a statement said that "IPCC report is an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership."
The panel of more than 200 scientists puts out a series of these massive reports every five to seven years. The last week report was the second of the series and it was totally devoted to how climate change affects people and the planet. Last August the science panel published a report on the latest climate science and projections for future warming, that was branded "code red" by the United Nations.
Since last August, all such risks are coming at us faster than we ever thought before. While the rich countries are slightly better off in meeting some of the challenges but mostly as result of their increased footprints, the poor segments of our planet suffer increasingly. Therefore, it is not too much of expectations to ask the rich to do a better job in giving financial help to poorer nations in need of adjustment to climate change. As of today, some of these risks can still be prevented or lessened with timely and prompt action. If we do everything we can, that will make a difference. That's what is left to hope for.
To meet the Paris Agreement, the world need to reach net-zero in the second half of this century. What does it entail and how this could be achieved? These and many other questions remain to be answered. For example, how should financiers count their share for the warming impact at the companies they support? Is it better to urge businesses to take stronger climate action or to stop funding them entirely? At the global level, achieving net-zero emissions means balancing human-induced emissions like those from fossil-fueled emissions – as close to zero as possible while ramping up carbon removal to balance out any remaining emissions. These solutions could include restoring forests or direct air capture and storage technology.
Effectively Build A Pathway to Achieve Carbon Neutrality
Decision-makers face several choices when designing net-zero targets. To maximize the contribution of net-zero targets to drive decarbonization in line with climate science, countries should consider the following proposed routes.
Fundamental shifts in how society operates. Zero-carbon future, will have winners, losers, and trade-offs. Achieving net-zero targets is a massive challenge—as countries need to transform comprehensively their economies, their development and sustainable economic growth. In setting such policies, decision makers require not only high-level political support by engaging relevant ministries, parliaments, bankers, experts, and the public but also, there is a need for firm legal commitment to ensure that net-zero targets are not just aspirational visions but rather, these targets will become transformative instruments that drive action towards realizing the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Governments should establish specific time frames for achieving targets. Countries with the highest emissions and greatest responsibility and capability should adopt the most ambitious target time frames. Distinct targets should be provided for a clear road map for both decarbonization, scaling carbon removals, and achieving net-zero or net-negative emissions. Governments should prioritize reducing and removing GHG emissions within the country's territory rather than relying on international transfers of GHG mitigation to achieve net-zero targets.
Countries should transparently communicate their net-zero targets and ensure that these targets include near- and midterm climate actions, adjusted by national development plans, policies, investments, and long-term low-emissions development strategies to support such transitions. We must admit this is a highly challenging trajectory for most governments and this was one of the main reasons for political wavering at COP26 giving rise to the persistent gap between its objectives and its outcomes. These political maneuverings only confirmed that the objective of maintaining global warming at 1.5°C is further away than many had hoped for.
The International Energy Agency in reviewing the climate commitments of COP 26 pointed to an increase warming of the planet which would be in the order of 1.8 degrees. The independent analysis by the "Climate Action Tracker" raised doubt about these optimistic results, estimating instead that current policies will lead to a warming of 2.7°C. The United Nations agreeing with these expert opinions and concluded that these plans, could put the world on a dangerous track for 2.5 degrees C (UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2021: The Heat Is On ) of warming by the end of the century. As they stand, these proposals reveal a major "credibility gap" between the 2.5 degrees C-aligned 2030 targets and nations' net-zero targets. To fix this problem, the UN recommended that these countries' must strengthen their 2030 emissions reduction targets to at least align with their net-zero commitments.
The COVID-19 Pandemic and Current International Situation Reshape Prospects for Sustainable Development
Moreover, the contributing factor to the political hesitancy of some countries was the economic disasters caused by the recurring COVID-19 pandemic, an experience that exceeded the limits of every imagination: job losses and dipping of income levels, increasing debt levels, and rising poverty among the least and less developed countries. According to the World Bank, the total number of 'new poor' globally (using a poverty line of uS$1.90 per day) ranged from 119 million to 124 million people in 2020. In 2021-22, these numbers are estimated to rise to 143 and 163 million people.
While the UN was making special efforts to focus the world attention to the imminent problems of climate change and COVID-19 with its devastating consequences, the complex and volatile international situation tipped the balance of peace and peace dividend that enjoyed by generations. As a result, this important intergovernmental panel report was overshadowed by such unexpected event.
With the growing fears of energy shortages around the world and concerns that a new outbreak of the corona-virus pandemic could hinder economic growth, some countries began to double down on fossil fuels. Energy insecurity was also driving up coal imports as nations raced to shore up fossil fuel supplies.
These reversals of objectives and long-term plans by various countries could give rise to many unavoidable crises including reinforcement of nationalism, protectionism, populism, unilateralism, and displacement of the values of multilateral cooperation. Economic competitiveness and security require a smarter, safer energy sourcing plan, but also a clear pathway to carbon neutrality and investment in the most strategic clean technologies, which will also drive 21st century jobs and growth.
We stand at the tipping point on the climate change cliff. It is, therefore, inconceivable that while Europe rethinks its fiscal rules, policymakers lose sight of the dangerous trajectory ahead and undo what was agreed upon after years of negotiations to switch away from green energy and sustainable development to business as usual.
Scientists say global emissions need to drop 45% by the end of this decade compared to 1990 levels. But recent data show that despite rapid growth in renewable energy, total emissions are going up not down. All parties have come around to the idea that the geopolitical implications are more important than environmental lines in the sand. However, if climate change is not treated as a global emergency, and adaptation and mitigation measures are not adopted immediately, we must back the assertion that its impacts will continue to disrupt weather, ecosystems, air quality, water, and food supply, threatening human health as well as human security worldwide.
Today, we need to uphold the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, promote international cooperation on climate change in the context of development, and implement the UN SDGs and the Paris Agreement according to its set plans. Developed economies should take the lead in honoring their emissions reduction responsibilities, they must deliver on their commitment of financial and technological support, and create the necessary conditions for assisting developing world to address climate change and achieve sustainable development goals. We must halve emissions this decade to reduce the worst impacts of climate change. It is still possible. As a result, we can create an equitable, just, and sustainable world that benefits all people and nature as a guardian of equality.
